Updated 9.35 - all selections online
Saturday evening’s Tattersalls-sponsored Irish 1,000 Guineas (7:15) is a different race to yesterday’s 2,000 Guineas; whereas a number of the fancied colts had stamina concerns beforehand, including the eventual winner Siskin, quite a few of these fillies are not only proven at a mile but likely to be better over further.
传奇sfAlbigna might be one of those. She has the best form and comes from a yard that is flying but her run style suggests a middle-distance type while she is also one of the more exposed runners having had five starts and been on the go since last May. At the prices, my preference is for a pair of fillies who like Albigna may show their best over 10 furlongs and further in time but are open to plenty of improvement.
PEACEFUL传奇sf debuted last August with the seemingly obligatory quiet Ballydoyle start at Leopardstown before following up with a wide-margin maiden win at Thurles but it is her final run at Newmarket that makes her interesting here.
That race was run in a good time along with some fast closing splits, Peaceful doing best of all on that count, as the front three pulled clear and the form has started to work out, the third a comfortable winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes since.
Aidan O’Brien was adamant that the heavy ground was against his filly there and she didn’t seem to handle the dip either so is worth marking up. This faster surface will suit more and I would expect Seamie Heffernan to ride her forward from the outset.
NEW YORK GIRL has even less experience after just two runs last September but both were good efforts. She came fourth on debut at Cork in what worked out a strong maiden and might well have been the best filly on the day, meeting trouble late and unsuited by being held up off a slow pace relative to the ones the beat her.
The drop back to seven furlongs next time in the Weld Park seemed unlikely to suit but she managed to win anyway despite being denied a run between the three and two furlong poles, the margin of victory only a neck but value for more. Going back up to a mile will help and while faster ground is an unknown there is enough in her price to take a chance.
传奇sfMagic Wand is a star turn later on the card in the Lanwades Stud Stakes at 7:45 but for all her high-class form she is an infrequent winner and has never really looked like a miler. This small field could mean a tactical race but settling on one to beat her is hard with Silk Forest the biggest danger if translating her soft ground form from the backend at Naas, her trainer typically excellent off a break.
Perhaps a more appealing betting race is the Coolmore Calyx Gladness Stakes at 6:45. The seven-furlong trip on fast ground might be too sharp for Lancaster House and preference is for SPEAK IN COLOURS.
Joseph O’Brien’s runner is yet to win over this distance but ran up to his best over it when in the frame in the City Of York and the Prix de la Foret last season and tends to go well fresh. He seems a horse with a clear class ceiling – his record below Group 2 level is: 3112312114 – while he also tends to run well at this track where only one horse has beaten him in four starts.
CRAFTY MADAM传奇sf is also worth a small bet for all that she has a bit to find. She improved 24lb on official ratings for the move to Ken Condon and the application of the tongue-tie last season including a couple of good runs at this track, the second of which saw her narrowly fail to give Waitingfortheday weight as the two fillies posted some fast closing sectionals, the winner now rated 18lb higher.
Pitched into Group 3 company on her final start of the year in the Concorde at Tipperary, she did well to finish third having been poorly positioned and with her in foal to Invincible Spirit there are grounds to think she can improve again.
At the very least, she can be expected to be hard fit for this as her window to race on is tight with the shortened season.
Tony Keenan’s next tipping column will be on Sunday, June 14th.
Tony's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
1pt win SPEAK IN COLOURS 传奇sf(15-8 Boylesports, 7-4 general)
0.5pt win CRAFTY MADAM (12-1 general, 11-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
1pt win PEACEFUL 传奇sf(100-30 general)
0.5pt win NEW YORK GIRL 传奇sf(16-1 bet365, 14-1 general)